
New York Fed President John Williams said the current policy stance is well calibrated for risks from the Middle East conflict. He noted the shock affects both prices and the availability of some commodities, and that inflation will run above 3% in coming months.
Commentary that the Fed is in no hurry to ease keeps the dollar and rate expectations firm, which matters for dollar-priced commodities. Unavailable commodities signal ongoing supply stress without a specific price move.
After 4,478 past macro events, DXY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.