
Mosaic withdrew its 2026 phosphate production forecast, which had been above 7 million tonnes, and said it would curtail output at several facilities due to higher raw material costs. It cited sulfur at record prices and expects Q2 phosphate sales of 1.4 to 1.7 million tonnes after partial curtailments at Louisiana and Bartow.
Lower phosphate output from a major producer tightens DAP supply and supports prices into the next application season.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.