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ADNOC set its June sulphur price at a record $860/t. The increase follows supply disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz and tighter global sulphur supply.
Sulphur is a key input for phosphoric acid and DAP, so higher sulphur costs raise phosphate production costs and support fertilizer prices.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.