
ABC News reports ABARES expects broadacre farm profits to fall 70% from last year to about $65,000 per farm, with NSW losses larger still. Winter crop output is forecast down 21%, and the value of agricultural exports is set to shrink by $7 billion.
Welcome rain has fallen in some areas, though drier-than-average winter conditions are expected.
Weaker farm margins may reduce planting and input use, tightening future Australian grain supply. The effect on near-term feed prices is limited, as the cuts are already in the crop forecast.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.