
Analysts expect Statistics Canada's June 30 acreage report to show more canola planted, driven by strong demand and high crush margins. Wheat acres are projected as low as 25.5 million, down from 26.738 million in March.
Heavy Prairie rains earlier in June may not be fully captured in the survey data.
Expected canola area gains and wheat area losses point to a shift in supply between crops. A larger-than-expected canola crop would weigh on canola prices, while lower wheat plantings would support wheat.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.