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IFDC's bulletin says reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased immediate fertilizer concerns, with Iranian urea exports resuming. It warns supply chains remain exposed to policy shifts, production costs and climate risks, especially for import-dependent Africa.
Resumed Iranian urea exports support softer nitrogen prices, while lingering risks keep a floor under fertilizer costs for import-dependent buyers.
ifdc.orgAfricaFertilizer Staff, IFDC Staff, Sustain Africa StaffJul 7, 2026After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.1% to +2.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
