
EUR/USD traded near 1.1660 after July PCE data showed headline inflation at 0.2% month-on-month, above forecasts, while core inflation matched expectations. US GDP held at 1.5% in Q2.
CME FedWatch showed about a 65% chance the Fed would leave rates unchanged in September.
Inflation data that keeps Fed hike odds elevated supports the dollar, which can cap dollar-priced commodity exports. The report did not change the Fed outlook much.
After 53 past bullish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 15 past bearish report events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.4%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.