
EUR/USD rebounded from 13-month lows after US core PCE rose 3.4% year on year in May, in line with expectations. Markets trimmed September Fed hike odds to 62% from 67%, and the Dollar Index traded near 101.50.
Inflation data in line with forecasts keeps the Fed hawkish and the dollar firm, which pressures dollar-priced ag commodities. The reduced hike odds offer limited relief for import-linked feed costs.
After 53 past bullish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 15 past bearish report events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.4%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.