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The dollar index jumped to a 4-3/4 month high after the March US CPI came in hotter than expected, lifting T-note yields. Swap markets cut expected 2024 Fed easing to 50 bp from 75 bp, and the yen fell to a 33-year low against the dollar.
A hot CPI reducing rate-cut odds strengthens the dollar and pressures dollar-priced feed commodities, while a weaker yen raises Japan's import costs.
barchart.comRich AsplundApr 10, 2024After 53 past bullish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 15 past bearish report events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.4%), and -0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Hot March US CPI on 2024-04-10 cut expected Fed easing and lifted yields, starting the dollar rally that fed the 5-day gain.
