
EUR/USD fell to its lowest level since mid-2025 as the dollar gained on elevated long-dated US Treasury yields and shifting Fed rate expectations. Traders are watching upcoming ADP payrolls and PCE inflation data to judge the chance of an October Fed rate hike.
Expectations of Fed tightening keep the dollar firm, which lowers the dollar price of dollar-priced commodities and can make US exports less competitive.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.