
USDA's September WASDE cut the corn yield to 178.5 bu/acre, down 2.2 bu from August, lowering production to 15.8 billion bushels. Soybean yield rose 0.1 bu to 52.8 bu/acre, and corn stocks-to-use fell below 10%.
The corn yield cut was expected, but falling stocks-to-use is bullish for corn prices and supports feed costs. The slight soybean increase is a modest bearish offset.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.