
The BCRA presented its third-quarter 2026 Monetary Policy Report, highlighting that Middle East conflict has not eased, Hormuz transit remains disrupted, and the conflict has spread to the Red Sea. The report notes falling oil inventories and low European gas storage heading into winter.
Persistent Hormuz and Red Sea disruption keeps energy and fertilizer costs elevated, which raises feed production and freight costs for buyers.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.