Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel and WTI approached $103 on October 30 as markets priced in possible further US strikes on Iran. Both benchmarks have gained more than 10% in October amid clashes involving Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces, and Hormuz tanker attacks continue.
Iran reportedly confirmed a US letter seeking to restart peace talks.
Higher crude raises freight, diesel and fertiliser costs for feed producers, and the Hormuz risk keeps the upside in energy and feed input prices open.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.