
Turkey may sharply reduce sunflower oil imports in 2026/27, and prolonged Black Sea disruption could push more Ukrainian seed into neighboring crushing markets. Kazakhstan is searching for new export routes for oil and meal, according to a Mersin summit discussion.
A smaller Turkish import pull would weigh on sunflower oil demand, while Black Sea logistics problems redirect trade flows and raise costs for Central Asian and Black Sea origins.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.