Ukraine produced 2.958 million tonnes of crude sunflower oil in September-February 2018/19, up 10.7%, and exported a record 632 thousand tonnes of sunflower oil in March, up 12% year on year. Russian vegetable oil output is forecast to rise 9.4% in 2018/19, with exports up 10.6%.
Record Ukrainian exports and rising Russian output add vegetable oil supply, which is bearish for oil prices and competing feed fats.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.