No Pain, No Grain: Ukraine’s Export Crisis Isn’t Over Yet

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+1.8%
• Aug 1, 2026Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says-0.8%
• Aug 3, 2023Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR+0.5%
• Dec 17, 2025Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals+0.8%
• Jun 2, 2023Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, minister says | Reuters-3.8%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+0.6%
• Aug 1, 2026Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says-0.1%
• Aug 3, 2023Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR-0.6%
• Dec 17, 2025Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals+1.1%
• Jun 2, 2023Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, minister says | Reuters-1.5%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.