The Panama Canal Authority expects drought-related transit restrictions to persist through much of 2025 due to low Gatun Lake levels. Shipping lines on Asia-US East Coast routes are rerouting via Suez or the Cape of Good Hope, adding transit time, fuel use and freight costs.
Longer voyages and reduced canal capacity raise ocean freight costs for US Gulf and Pacific grain exports to Asia, potentially favoring Black Sea and Brazilian origins and weighing on US export competitiveness.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.