Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continued, with a Greek dry bulk carrier sinking on July 7 and another vessel attacked the next day. Daily Bab al-Mandab transits fell to 24 by late June versus a normal level above 70.
Most operators have rerouted around Africa, and US tariff announcements remain under watch.
Diversions and high insurance raise freight and bunker costs, supporting higher delivered prices for grain and oilseed cargoes moving through the Red Sea corridor.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.