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A winter freeze has frozen parts of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, compounding drought-related low water and restricting barge traffic on a key soft red winter wheat route. Reduced draft capacity has raised freight costs to Gulf export markets, and the Mississippi at St. Louis dipped below the 3.2-foot low threshold on Jan.
20-21. Kansas State economist Guy Allen noted that corn exports are running at a record pace.
Higher freight costs push interior grain prices down relative to export values, and the strong Gulf export program keeps demand firm, so the basis widens for wheat and corn.
bakingbusiness.comMatt NoltemeyerJan 29, 2026After 137 past bearish logistics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, CORN moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
