FMD SAT-1 continues circulating in the Middle East, with outbreaks on three pig farms in Cyprus and more positive farms in Greece. ASF has been detected in wild boar in Spain and Saxony, Germany, an area previously declared disease-free.
Spread of FMD and ASF into new European areas raises the risk of export bans and trade restrictions on pork and livestock, which can pressure hog and feeder cattle prices.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.