
Live cattle futures fell the daily limit to a 3.5-month low and feeder cattle hit a three-month low, with expanded trading limits. USDA cash cattle trade averaged $235.00 in light activity, and the digest also reports rising US HPAI confirmations in poultry.
Sharp cattle futures declines lower the value of cattle and cattle-linked feed demand, while rising HPAI cases add pressure on poultry supply.
After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.