Live cattle futures are down more than 12% and cash fed cattle about 7.5% from levels before January's coronavirus news. Feeder futures are down nearly 11% since January, and Oklahoma 450-500 lb steer cash prices fell 6% in a week.
The article frames the outbreak as a market black swan event.
Declining futures and cash prices signal weaker demand expectations for beef, pressuring feeder and fed cattle values for the coming months.
After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Quantifies live cattle futures drop of over 12% since the coronavirus news, framing the outbreak as the driver.