
The USDA forecasts Malaysia's 2021 biodiesel output will fall 16% to 1.05 billion litres, with exports down 23.5%. Record-high crude palm oil prices have kept the palm oil-gasoil spread wide, making exports more attractive than domestic blending.
Kuala Lumpur also delayed its nationwide B20 rollout due to subsidy costs.
Lower biodiesel use removes palm oil demand from the domestic feedstock market, which is bearish for crude palm oil prices. Weaker biodiesel demand also signals limited support from mandates.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.