
The EU deforestation regulation (EUDR) is expected to make it harder for Indonesian biodiesel to enter the EU and other markets. Indonesian biodiesel exports fell almost 50% to 187,810 kl in 2023, and January 2024 exports dropped about 73% month on month.
Lower biodiesel exports leave more FAME for domestic use, which can absorb palm oil. Weaker export demand for palm-based biodiesel is bearish for palm oil and related vegetable oils.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.