
Indonesia set the June 2026 crude palm oil reference price at US$1,029.51 per tonne, down 1.91% from May, citing weaker demand from major importers such as India. Export duty and levy were also set for June.
A lower reference price reduces Indonesian export charges and reflects softer import demand, which is mildly bearish for palm oil prices.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.