
Indonesia lowered its crude palm oil reference price for the Jan 1-15 period to $746.69 per ton from $767.51. The government kept the export tax and levy rate unchanged.
The lower reference price reduces the duty base, but unchanged rates mean no new cost shock; the palm oil price signal is modestly bearish for vegetable oils and soybean oil.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.