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IPOSS projects Indonesia's crude palm oil export levy for Q3 2026 at US$134-137 per tonne, calculated at 12.5% of the reference price. The monthly levy is expected to dip in August before rising in September with the reference price.
A higher export levy lowers the net price received by exporters and can keep more supply at home, which tightens export availability and supports palm oil prices.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.