The EIA estimates US renewable diesel capacity was 2.6 billion gallons per year at the end of 2022 and could reach 5.9 billion by the end of 2025 if announced projects proceed on schedule. Growth is driven by rising state and federal renewable fuel targets and biomass-based diesel tax credits extended through 2024 under the Inflation Reduction Act.
The agency noted some projects may be delayed or canceled.
A large increase in renewable diesel capacity would sharply raise demand for vegetable oils such as soybean oil and canola oil, supporting their prices and feedstock demand.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.