The EIA's AEO2022 Reference case projects U.S. renewable diesel supply will exceed biodiesel supply in the near term. Renewable diesel supply is projected to reach 130,000 b/d in 2022 and 145,000 b/d in 2050.
Growth is driven by new refinery capacity and existing incentives.
A shift toward renewable diesel increases demand for fats and oils feedstocks, which supports soybean oil and other vegetable oil prices.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.