
US biofuel demand for soybean and canola oil has weakened as policy shifts favor lower carbon-intensity feedstocks. California's LCFS targets rose to 30% by 2030, and from 2028 crop-based vegetable oil biofuels will be capped at 20% of credit generation.
Producers will also need to track feedstock origin.
Caps on crop-based credits and extra traceability costs reduce demand for soybean oil in biofuel, which pressures soybean oil prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.