The Illinois Soybean Association opposes the 45Z clean fuel tax credit, arguing its carbon-intensity scoring gives larger credits to imported feedstocks from Brazil, China and Southeast Asia. It says this favors imports over domestic soybean oil in biofuels.
Shifting biofuel feedstock demand toward imports reduces US soybean oil use, which pressures soybean oil and soybean prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.