The American Soybean Association said EPA's notice of data availability signals possible reductions to RFS volumes, including volumes finalized a year earlier. It cited about 1.9 billion gallons of US biodiesel production in 2016 and 1 billion gallons of imports.
The group said EPA's proposed 2.1 billion gallon 2019 level is below industry capacity.
Potential cuts below the proposed 2.1 billion gallon biomass-based diesel level would reduce soybean oil demand, which is bearish for that product. Industry capacity above the proposed level means the price effect depends on the final rule.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.