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Farmdoc daily analysts project D4 biomass-based diesel RIN generation for 2026-2027 using balance sheets updated with 2025 data and the final RVOs. The article notes the final rule keeps 70% SRE reallocation and delays the half-RIN penalty on imports until 2028 or later.
The authors describe the RVO increases as unprecedented in RFS history.
Projected RIN generation indicates how much domestic feedstock and oil will be pulled into biodiesel, which bears directly on soybean oil demand and prices.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoMay 1, 2026After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
