The American Farm Bureau says US agricultural exports to China reached about $30 billion from January to November 2021, up 33% from 2020. It expects China to fall about $10 billion short of its 2021 Phase One purchase goal.
Export growth supports US farm demand, but the expected shortfall against Phase One targets signals limited upside from the trade deal.
After 1,802 past trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,982 past trade events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 977 past trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.