China's soybean imports in October 2022 fell 19.0% year on year to 4.4 million tonnes, the weakest monthly total since October 2014. USDA's Beijing bureau forecasts 2022-23 imports of 96.5 million tonnes, with growth driven by soymeal and soyoil demand.
A weak import pace reflects poor crush margins, but USDA expects a recovery that supports soybean, soymeal and soyoil demand. Forecast improvement supports prices if the recovery materializes.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.