
The May 12 WASDE projected 2026/27 US soybean oil exports at 400 million pounds, the second lowest since 1964/65. Biomass-based diesel is expected to take the largest share of a crush-driven domestic soybean oil supply.
Minimal exports keep soybean oil supplies at home for biofuel use, tightening the domestic balance and supporting soybean oil prices, while greater volatility is expected.
After 296 past bullish report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.