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A CSIS commentary reviews U.S. agricultural exports to China, which collapsed in 2025 under Chinese retaliatory tariffs. It says soybean purchase commitments replaced only a fraction of lost trade and that tariffs have not been fully lifted.
The analysis suggests purchase pledges do not fully restore lost demand, so structural export losses may persist for U.S. farm products.
csis.orgHugh Grant-ChapmanMay 13, 2026After 1,802 past trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,982 past trade events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 977 past trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
