
Ukraine reportedly carried out a drone attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol, damaging one warship, according to Russia. Russia said the targeted ships were part of the grain export deal and then suspended its participation in the agreement.
The attack and Russia's suspension raise the risk of disruption to Black Sea grain shipping, which supports wheat and corn prices.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.