
Turkey said it would keep Ukrainian grain moving after Russia suspended its participation in the UN-brokered deal, following a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Cargo ships carried 354,500 tonnes of grain on Monday, the most in a single day since the programme began, including wheat bound for Africa and the Middle East.
Wheat supplies to Africa and the Middle East are at risk if the corridor fails, which would widen the supply gap and push wheat prices higher.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.