Intelligence shows Russia may target Black Sea civilian shipping

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Dec 30, 2025Russia attacks Ukraine's Black Sea ports and civilian ships, Kyiv says | MarketScreener+0.2%
• Apr 16, 2024Reuters: Ukraine, Russia almost reached Black Sea shipping agreement in March-0.6%
• Apr 26, 2023Ukrainian Navy Says Russia Refused To Allow Movement Of Four Ships In Black Sea Grain Deal-0.1%
• May 13, 2026Black Sea maritime war: how Ukraine is transferring the costs of maritime insecurity to Russia+0.9%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 16, 2024Reuters: Ukraine, Russia almost reached Black Sea shipping agreement in March-0.3%
• Apr 26, 2023Ukrainian Navy Says Russia Refused To Allow Movement Of Four Ships In Black Sea Grain Deal-2.1%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Oct 29, 2022'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia - BBC News-2.2%
• May 25, 2023Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met-4.4%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.