Ukraine exported 1.71 million tons of wheat, barley and corn in the first 15 days of May, up 11% year on year. Corn led at 1.16 million tons and wheat reached about 550,000 tons, while barley exports were negligible.
Sea shipments of corn rose only 7%, and rail exports grew sharply from a small base.
Steady Ukrainian export pace adds supply to world corn and wheat markets, a modest bearish factor for feed grain prices. Barley's near-zero exports tighten that niche supply.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.