
S&P Global data show agricultural crop exports from Ukraine, Russia and Romania through the Black Sea totaled 6.4 million tonnes in February. Russian grain volumes rose 10% year on year in the first three months of 2025, to 24.48 million tonnes.
The Kremlin says a US-backed deal would require lifting sanctions on Rosselkhozbank and restoring SWIFT access.
Higher Russian grain shipments add to global wheat supply and weigh on prices. Sanctions relief for Russian banks would ease trade finance and could increase competition in export markets.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.