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Argentina's 2025-26 wheat harvest is estimated at a record 27.1 million tonnes, 20% above the 2021-22 record, on yields up 35% year over year. Three wheat cargoes totaling 160,000 tonnes were shipped to China in December 2025, the first such exports since 1989.
Export tax cuts were also announced for wheat, barley, soybeans, corn, and sunflower.
Record Argentine wheat supply and lower export taxes increase exportable grain availability and competition in world markets, pressuring wheat and coarse grain prices.
world-grain.comSusan ReidyApr 6, 2026After 122 past bearish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 15 past bearish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.1%), and +3.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
