
Brazil's second-corn harvest passed the halfway mark, with Mato Grosso 84% complete. Crop estimates range from Conab's 127 million tons to a crop-tour figure of 137 million tons overall, with USDA at 133 million tons.
Wide estimate ranges and a large crop with limited storage point to heavy export supply and downward pressure on corn prices. Slow harvest in Parana and other states adds timing uncertainty.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.