
Emater estimates Rio Grande do Sul's 2023/24 soybean crop at 22.44 million tons, up 73% from the drought-hit prior year, on 6.7 million hectares. Corn output is forecast at 6.06 million tons, up 53%.
A sharp rebound in state output expands Brazilian soybean and corn supply for the coming season, which is bearish for soybean meal and corn prices if it holds.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.