Brazil's corn estimate was held at 133.0 million tons this week. Planting of safrinha corn was 91% complete, behind last year's 97%, with about 1.3 million hectares unplanted, and dryness is developing in southern safrinha areas, especially Paraná.
The unchanged estimate carries downside risk from late planting and dryness, which would reduce Brazilian corn exports and support global corn and feed prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.