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Conab's May report raised its 2025/26 Brazilian soybean estimate by 0.94 million tonnes to 180.12 million and its corn estimate by 0.6 million tonnes to 140.17 million. Soybean area rose to 48.17 million hectares and yields edged up.
First-crop corn output was raised while safrinha output was cut by 660,000 tonnes to 108.45 million.
A larger Brazilian soybean and corn crop adds export supply during the northern hemisphere marketing window, which is bearish for soybeans, soybean meal and corn prices.
soybeanandcorn.orgMay 18, 2026After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
