
Iowa and South Dakota harvest results were good but below expectations after heat and disease. Soybean field averages ran from the upper 60s to mid-80s bushels, while corn yields ranged from 190 to 250 bushels after July storms caused root lodging and green snap.
Storm damage and heat trimmed corn yields, which is a modest supply-side support for corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.