Russia's sunflower oil export duty will rise 2.1% to 9,495 rubles per tonne in February 2026, from 9,298.6 in January, and the sunflower meal duty stays at zero for a second month. The duty is 70% of the gap between fixed base prices and monthly indicative prices, under a mechanism extended to August 2028.
Higher export duties on Russian sunflower oil raise its export cost and can support global sunflower oil prices. The unchanged zero meal duty keeps meal exports open.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.