Russia's Ministry of Agriculture set the July 2026 export duty on sunflower oil at RUB 3,294.2 per ton, up from RUB 1,337.5 in June. The sunflower meal duty stays at zero.
The indicative oil price rose slightly to $1,297.2 per ton.
A roughly 2.5-fold jump in the oil export duty lowers the Russian export margin for sunflower oil, which tends to support world sunflower oil prices and firm demand for alternatives. The zero meal duty keeps Russian meal exports open.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.